From Kansas City to Kuala Lumpur, there is now a palpable sense that much of the world, with some unfortunate exceptions in India, Japan and elsewhere, is slowly returning to a pre-March 2020 normalcy.
As of this writing, more than 50% of U.S. citizens are fully vaccinated. Mask mandates have either been entirely rescinded in states where they were once in effect or there are plans to drop them in the coming weeks. While there will likely be friction here and there as businesses and governments determine how best to manage the transition back to a pre-pandemic, mask-less reality, there is now broad consensus that summer 2021 will, mercifully, look much more like summer 2019 than last summer.
Consumers, thankfully, are not waiting for guidance from governments or local municipalities to resume their social activities and spending. Fifteen months without live concerts, sporting events or much in the way of a vacation have created a level of pent-up consumer demand that economists haven’t seen in nearly a half-century. Airbnb’s Brian Chesky stated recently that the vacation rental juggernaut now needs thousands of additional hosts on its platform to meet the surge in demand. Even cruise ship operators are reporting that they are fully booked for most of their excursions well into 2022.
To be sure, a robust stock market, which demonstrated surprising resilience over the last year, and government largesse has fueled some of this. Flush stock portfolios have encouraged many home-bound consumers, laptops at the ready, to splurge on luxury goods as a way to assuage the loneliness and monotony of months of lockdowns. Record-shattering sales in every category from fine art to designer handbags to collector cars are a testament to that.
Revenue delayed is not necessarily revenue denied
For many startups, this anticipated surge in consumer spend is not coming a moment too soon. As we’ve discussed in previous posts, after the pandemic hit there emerged a clear ‘tale of two cities’ of companies that were obvious Covid beneficiaries and those that were being disproportionately impacted. Fortunately, even within industries that were particularly sensitive to the demand shock of a…